National Intelligence Estimate
An Assessment of the Security Situation in Iraq
Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weaknessof the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourseto violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violenceand political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions showmeasurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue todeteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006. Ifstrengthened Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), more loyal to the government andsupported by coalition forces, are able to reduce levels of violence andestablish more effective security for Iraq’s population, Iraqi…
